Sunday, February 16, 2003

the only way war in Iraq will not occur

The recent meeting of the UN Security Council was supposed to be Iraq's judgement. To the surprise of Colin Powell, Dominique Galouzeau de Villepin, France's Foreign Minister, rebuffed the US--and received rare applause from observers and press in the always reserved Security Council.

Despite the rift in the EU, NATO, and UN, France looks resolved to continue to oppose war against Iraq. France is representing the view of the majority of the world, as shown by the Valentine's Day demonstrations worldwide. The demonstration in London were Britain's largest demonstrations ever. In Australia, the only country that has committed forces to Iraq already besides the US and Britain, demostrations were widespread. Polls show that the Australian public is against war, and most believe the normally poll-responsive Prime Minister is only trying to warm up to Bush.

Yet despite stiff French resistence and opposing world sentiment, Bush is still going to go to war.

"duh, mr. obvious"

Sure, everyone knows that Bush is as resolved for war as the French are against war. Perhaps the best explaination of why, however, is provided by Maureen Dowd of the New York Times.

Henry Kissinger summed up the logic of conservatives: "If the United States marches 200,000 troops into the region and then marches them back out . . . the credibility of American power . . . will be gravely, perhaps irreparably impaired."

The painful parts of Washington history have often been about men trying harder to save face than lives.

With or without the fussy Frenchies, we're going to war. For this White House, pulling back when all our forces are poised for battle would be, to use the Bush family's least favorite word, wimpy. (full text)

I can only see one way for the US to not go to war--if Bush is elected out of office or forced to accepted a more peaceful stance toward Iraq during the primaries. Yes, I realize that any such event is a far way off. But really there is no other way the US will not attack Iraq.

After all, polls show that the American public is not convinced that a war on Iraq would be prudent. What a squandered chance in the mid-term elections. Bush could have been sent a message of "NO, you must compromise." Instead, we elected more Republicans into Congress.

Maybe in 2004.


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